Poker Blog and Poker Gossip

Last week i talked about the difference between trips and a set, and this week i’ll continue that train of thought with going over how powerful a mid (or low) pocket pair can be.

Let’s look at it this way.  If you’re holding pocket 66′s in early position, and the flop comes 9, J, K It’s a very easy flop to fold.  You’re able to lead out, (or check, but it’s not recommended) and get a lot of information from your opponents.  It’s the type of hand that if your opponent calls your hand, you can be sure they have you beat and fold the hand after the turn. 

If you hit however, you have a very disguised hand that can do a lot of damage.  The risk-reward ratio is huge with this type of hand. 

Compare pocket 66′s with pocket QQ’s and the same flop.  You would be much less inclined to fold even with the king out on the flop, and would likely commit much more money to the pot, both preflop and postflop (because the pot is bigger). 

The difference is largely this.  With pocket 66′s, you know you have to hit, and know that if you don’t improve it’s a throwaway hand.  There is little danger of you “marrying” the hand, and it is much more likely that if you hit, you hit big.  With QQ’s, (or JJ or 1010), you immediately love the hand.  Feel that it’s a made hand, and that no one out there can beat you.  You play more recklessly, and often miss big clues that you’re behind.  Even if you are right and the person didn’t hit the king, the king is out there making them afraid you’ve hit it, and your pay off is minimized. 

With low to mid pocket pairs your postflop decisions can be simplified and your odds of getting much bigger pay-offs are improved greatly (if you hit!!)

I have no IDEA why this video wont embed….
Personally, i don’t know if i could have called the way our russian friend did.  But mathematically, i think he was ahead as far as outs go pre flop (obviously AQ is the stronger hand, i’m just saying he had more OUTS preflop than the AQ).

Still, sick beat, and i hate getting put out in a tourney in that way!!  And, the sad thing is, there is nothing you can do at that point.. just let the cards fall and hope that 7 doesn’t hit on the river!

Starting in ’08 the WSOP had instituted a 4 month break between when the final table is reached, and when it is played.  That tradition has continued in 2009, and most of the ’09 final table members have taken full advantage of the extra time.   8 of the 9 have inked deals with online poker rooms.  The online rooms get publicity in the form of clothing worn by the players during televised play, and the players pad their winnings with aguaranteed amount from the endorsement deal.  The only player to bow out of the lucrative potential deals was chip-leader Darvin Moon, who says he doesn’t play online poker.  There are a lot of online rooms that are interested in signing him, however he states that he’s just not interested, and wont be inking a deal.  Maybe a live poker room will want arepresentative at the final table? 

Here is how the endorsement deals shake out (note: both Eric Buchman and Steve Begleiter were stated as either “being second in chips” or “Having the second biggest chip stack at the table”..so i put them at second and third respectively…)

Pokerstars
Eric buchman (2nd)
Joe Cada (5th )        
Kevin Schaffel (6th)

Full Tilt
Phil Ivey (7th)
Steve Begleiter (3rd)
James Akenead (9th)

Everest Poker
Antoine Saout (8th)

Spade Club
Jeffrey Shulman (4th)

When i was new to the poker world, i was shakily playing at a local casino.  One of my very first live games outside of my house, and i was definitely not the confident player i am now.  I sat in as the big blind, but before i realized I it mucked my cards.  The dealer was very nice as she said “sir, you’re the big blind and all you have to do is check, i don’t know why your cards are so far away from you?”  I promptly took the opportunity, said check and saw the flop. 

My cards were 9 2 off suit, and low and behold, the flop came 2 2 7.  I was pretty happy with this turn of events, and even now would be happy with that kind of flop to be played aggressively to the river.

I’ll come back to the story in a few minutes.  Put simply, sets are much stronger than trips.  What’s the difference??  In my story, i flopped trips.  2 matching cards on the flop helped me out. (holding 9 2 and the flop comes 2 2 7).  Love it. 
A set is when you’re holding a pocket pair and make your set with only one card on the flop. (you’re holding 22 and the flop comes 7 2 8).  A set is much more powerful and deceptive.  When 2 cards match on the flop (like the above example) everyone is worried that someone is sitting there with one of the remainingdeuces , and so they play much more carefully.  With a set, the strength of your hand is invisible to opponents.  If you’re holding 44 and the flop is A 10 4, someone with A 10 is likely to lose a lot of money because they’ll truly believe that they have the best hand (unless they have a sick read on you).  If you flop trips, you also have a 37% chance of improving to a full house by the river.  If thathappens, and your opponent improved to trips, he’s almost certain to go broke, or at least double you up!

Back to my story…although I’m sure you’ve already guessed what happened to me…i bet out, got called (it was a limit game) turn came a 10, and the river an Ace.  I’m betting the whole way through, and another guy is raising me every street.  We went through 2 streets capped.  At showdown, i turn over my boat, confident thatI’m only up against 2 pair (i figured he had a strong ace and was really happy when the river came down…).  I was wrong.  He had pocket 10′s, and he was quite happy when the turn hit.  I lost a lot of money in that hand, but it made me a better poker player.

Realistically i could have probably gotten that dealer in a lot of trouble as well, but i figured she was doing me a favour, and shouldn’t be punished for my donk move!

maybe he hit a Set!

This is really on small story in a world that is struggling to cope with the financial melt down and how to find new revenue (tax) streams for cash strapped governments.  But, i think that it hits close to home.  It doesn’t matter how many people are “pro” online gaming, or how many people have solid evidence that it wouldbenefit both players and government to “legalize” online gambling there will always be people to throw road blocks up. 

And in this story, that person is Marth Coakley.  She is the Attorney General for Massachusetts.  She is quoted as saying “As long as I’m in office, all online casino’s, online poker rooms and other forms of online gambling would remain illegal.”  Wow.  I’m going to address this right here.  She is the only person who has that stance.  Online gaming is NOT illegal in Massachusetts.  There is currently no state law governing online gaming in Massachusetts, and so having “online gambling is illegal in this state” posted on yourofficial website is simply inappropriate for the Attorney General. It’s not an accurate statement. 
On to the vote that she’s blocking.  This seems to be a more complicated matter.  The proposal was submitted to Coakley’s office by the PPA last month.  The Attorney General rejected the proposal (thereby blocking the proposal from ending up on the ballot) on grounds that it was not submitted in proper form (and in accordance with Massachusettsrequirements ).  What this basically boils down to is that the language was not clear on weather an online gaming site would have to get a licence from Massachusetts, or weather it only had to “seek the approval of the state.”  This caused problems because there was a potential loop hole in the payment of the 5% tax on deposits to online sites that was proposed by the PPA.  Coakley stated that her rejection or acceptance of ballot initiatives “in no way means they have either our support or opposition.”

I’m not sure if that’s good news or not…but one thing is for sure.  This debate isn’t over, and there are strong proponents for both sides.  It’ll be interesting to see how this turns out.

With all the other things that congress and the American leadership in general has to deal with these days, I’m not sure this is going to work.  But it appears that the Safe and Secure Internet Gambling Initiative is putting lots of money out there to support Barney Frank’s bill. 

On the other hand, the way they’re advertising it, it might just get something done.  Here is a quote from Jeffery Sandman (spokesperson for the safe and secure Internet gambling initiative) on the benefits of legalizing and taxing online poker:

“As Congress searches for ways to pay for health care reform and other worthy programs, it should end the unsuccessful prohibition of Internet gambling and start collecting taxes on the billions in revenue currently lost to unlicensed, offshore gambling operators,”

The ads will appear in several online publications, including The Huffington Post, Political Wire, Washington Post and Politico and will focus on different messages.  Some will highlight how the new legislation would protect consumers, some will compare the outlawing of online poker to prohibition of the 1920′s, while others (and i think these will be the most successful for getting people to listen up) will give an overview of how much money could be generated from taxing and regulating the already popular online activity. 

It seems like a no brainer to me…Legalizing online poker (gaming) give everyone what they want.  Online gamblers get a system they can rely on, and as long as the taxes aren’t astronomical it can easily stay profitable for winning players.  The government gets billions of dollars to line their pockets with  ahem..spend on health care…..everyones happy!

Safe and Secure Internet Gambling