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Archive for Poker Strategy

Variance and Online Poker

I was reading an article over at Pokerstarsblog.com, and the general thrust of the article is this: Why am i fairly profitable when i play Live poker, and generally not as profitable (or a losing player) when i play online poker? 
The short answer to that question is this: you aren’t as good as you
think you are.  That was enough to get me to read on….and comment
(note: i will reprint parts of the article, they will be in
italics…if you want to read thePokerstarsblog article, click here)..

First
things first.  When figuring out if you’re a winning player or losing
player, having a good idea of what stakes you’re playing at, what your
monthly win/lose rate is and how much time are you committing to your
poker game are crucial.

Although poker is recreational for
me I take it very seriously and constantly work to improve my game. I
play live poker 8-10 hours a weekend and average close to $1200 a month
in earnings. It’s a good thing my live play brings home money since I
probably burn $400 a month online in about 8 hours a week play. So I
experience 1,000 live hands a month versus around 2,000 online.

So
this guy spends about as much time online playing poker as he does
playing live, and his win rate live is fairly good.  Online however, he
sees roughly double the hands and loses 1/3 of the money he won to
online players.  The reason for this is many fold, and that’s the meat
and potatoes of this article.  Why is it that if all he did was play
live poker he’d be up $1200 in a 3 month period rather than down that
money? 

More Hands = Ught Oh!
The common wisdom on
this is that by seeing double the hands in the same period of time the
true statistical nature of your game comes out…right out of your
profits.  If you normally get caught throwing away some of your stack
to your live opponents with 7/8 suited, this happens far less live
(because of the fewer hands seen) and so you lose less money to that
donkey play.  When you have multiple holes in your game, your online
losses will be significantly higher. 

Distractions
We’ve
all done it…your wife is watching American Idol, the kids are playing
with something or other, and you just want to escape to online poker. 
Nothing wrong with that…right?

I believe at the end of the
day it is because I don’t take it as seriously. Live, my focus is on
the game. I’m not much of a sports guy so there are usually no
distractions for me….I am never just playing poker online I am doing
work, writing email, have my kids on my lap, have my wife calling,
video editing, messing around onFacebook or CNN, watching TV, etc…
Very rarely just playing poker. In fact, as I write this I am playing
online. Sometimes I’ll catch myself watching poker on TV while playing
online and have to remind myself what an idiot I am concentrating on TV
games.

I think that paragraph is a good representation
of how powerful a distraction can be.  It’s not only that you’re not
100% paying attention to the game, you’re actively doing something
else.  “Oh, those cards aren’t that good, soi’ll just quickly check my facebook
/update my twitter/ finish getting that blowjob…whatever….more
cards will come any second.”  While that’s true, there are a lot of
people who believe that there aren’t as many “tells” in online poker. 
The reason is that people have so many distractions that they actively
aren’t looking for tells.  Use the time when you’re not playing a hand
to see how your opponents play…you will pick up some pretty big tells.

Experimenting With Your Play

I
am a cowboy much more so online than live. Online I take many more
risks and push the boundaries of my creative play regularly. I treat my
money with less respect online since I play with smaller buy-ins than I
do live. It is, in a sense, now monopoly money. Sometimes I just have
much less patience and do stupid things.

This is
as self explanatory as it gets.  If you aren’t respecting the $400
bucks you’re losing a week, of course you’re going to lose it.  I dont
believe the “lower stakes = less respect for the buy in” or even that
lower stakes = more donkeys (even at the $200/400 tables there is
someone there that $50,000 means nothing to and will call your river
bluff), but if you defeat yourself before you even get on the table by
devaluing the money then you deserve to lose it.  “oh, it’s only a $5
sit n go, and there is another one right here when i
lose”…yep..because you will lose.

There is a lot there to think about…….and now that i’m done writing that..i think i’ll fire up my online Pokerstars account:)

Going Broke can Happen to the Best of Us

We’ve all seen the ads.  The guy who’s friends are waiting for him at the restaurant, or the disappointed girlfriend who’s ready to leave and the dude is saying “just one more hand.”  Now, i dont put a lot of stock into these types of things, preferring to believe that it’s the media trying to vilify
online poker for any number of reasons.  BUT, there are people out
there, quite a few people really, who have fallen prey to believing
that they cannot lose.  Or, if they have enough money, over a long
enough period of time, they will make it all back and then some.  So
they play, and get in debt, and to get out of debt play more.  And the
cycle gets worse and worse…..

Take Football (soccer) star Brendan Fevola. 
He’s a professional athlete, at one of the most popular sports on the
planet, and right now, he can’t make ends meet.  He currently has
outstanding debts of about $300,000 mainly to bookies (aside from
credit cards, or citi bank, bookies are the worst places you want to owe
money).  His yearly wage (potentially) exceeds $200,000 a year, so this
isn’t life threatening, actually, it’s more like Brendan became a
“regular” person with a big mortgage, car payment and maybe a baby at
home.  He will get through this, but it illustrates my point.  He
thought he was invincible.  He didn’t put any limits on himself, and
got a rude wake up call.

What can you Do?

Now, i’m
not talking about losing your online bankroll…as long as that money’s
there for just poker lose it all you like.  But when you start getting
into your rent  money, you should take a look at your gambling habits. 
So…..

Dont play with scared money
I’ve said this
before…..playing with money you can’t lose changes your game play and
style.  You’re less likely to take that calculated risk, and more
likely to put your money in foolishly.  Play with money you can afford
to lose, and you’ll play your best.

Use the built in Self Exclusion Software
On
every online gambling site, there is a self exclusion software built
right in.  Utilize it.  Make sure you decide well before playing what
your daily/weekly/monthly limit is, and set the exclusion software appropriately. 
Also, if you find that you’re loading your account with money often,
you should probably set some limits for your own sanity.  Usually
loading your account often means that you’re a losing player…and
giving money away is the actually the opposite of playing good poker.

Do you have any ideas on other ways to limit your online gambling?  Share them in the comments!

The Value of Newbies, and how to Spot them!

I love me some newbies, especially at a table i’m playing at.  They’re
(usually) an easy source of money, and typically easy to bully or goad
into or out of a pot.  If you happen to be new to online poker, or new
to the game in general, have a look through the following list to see
what your opponents might be on the look out for.  If you are an old
hand at the game, maybe throw some of these tricks in to catch an
opponent at a silly bluff.

1. Looking at your cards as soon as you get them

Seasoned
players know that there are a lot of tells that happen when you first
see your hand.  Players will often wait until the action is on them
before glancing down at their cards.  That way, if the action is weak,
or you have good position (late, close to the dealer) you can make a decision based on what the other players are doing rather than the perceived
strength of your cards.  An example would be, if you’re on the button
(dealer) and holding a weak pocket pair (i’m thinking 66), and at the
moment 2 players have limped (only put the big blind into the pot). 
You will have a good gauge that theyaren ‘t that strong, and can raise
it a few times the pot.  This way you’ll only be playing with a much
fewer number of players, or maybe pay for your blinds for the next few
rounds.  Moral of the story: Wait until the action is on you to look at
your cards, you might give yourself an opportunity to steal the pot!

2.  Bad chip tricks / fumbling with the chips
I’ll
admit it, when i first started playing poker, i loved the rush of the
game, but MAN were those chip tricks cool.  I use to sit at my computer
playing online and practising the chip riffle, and other random tricks
that look awesome to newbies (by the time you’re a seasoned player,
you’ll still do it, but you wont be thinking about it).  So, spotting a
newbie at your table in this way is easy.  If someone is watching your
chip tricks and asking for advice…maybe try and bluff them out a
bit..or goad them into pushing all in with their pocket jacks after the
king hit on the flop.

3. Not knowing how the blinds work, or asking “how many blue ones did you put in the middle?”
If
a player is THIS new to the game, i likely wont fuck with him.  it’s
rude, and he’ll likely be the guy who takes a whack load of your money
because he justdoesn’t know how to fold.  But, if a player is asking questions that any poker player wouldn’t be caught dead asking (the “middle” is the pot dude…) he’s probably new. really new. new enough that you could scar his poker experience forever.  I leave the choice up to you.

4. Over betting the Pot
This
just makes me plain angry. I hate it when there is 300 bucks in the
pot, the average chip stack is 1500 and some jackass in early position trys
to “buy” it with a silly $800 or $1000 bet.  Then, when everyone folds
they say something like “oh wow, that was easy! no one wants to play
with me?” with a shit eating grin on their face.  No dude, i don’t want
to play with your obvious top set or over pair, but i will play when
you’re trying to hit that top set on the turn..and you’ll let me
because you’ll check/call the turn and the river..and then give me all
your money.  (i play with a lot of newbies in a local bar game… :) )

Remember, you can’t bluff a player who doesn’t
know to fold (read: if they’re calling you through the flop, turn with
nothing apparent to you..they’ll likely call that insane river all in,
and have you beat wtih 2 BRUTAL pairs..) and If you haven’t spotted the sucker within 5 minutes of sitting down, you are the sucker.

What is your Best Game?

Poker is a fantastic game.  It has so many facets and nuances that if you only ever played Texas Holdem, you could spend your whole life concentrating on perfecting it, and still have work to do.  That being said, poker is also great because there are so many variances.  There’s Omaha, 7 card stud, Razz, 5 card draw, and i’m only scratching the surface.  The reason i’m asking is not because i think you dont know about other types of poker games.  The reason is much much deeper than that.

Profit

So you take a bad beat on Full Tilt in a small sit n go, and are pissed at holdem’.  So, instead of taking another shot at multi tabling in the same game, you fire up an Omaha table, or a Hi/Lo 7 Card table.  And guess what? You come out making a lot of money.  Way more than you would have if you had won that sit n go.  That’s my story anyway, and that’s how i started playing 7 Stud more often than any other game (by far my favourite).  Was it because i was better at 7 stud than most people?  I don’t think so, but i gave myself time to learn the game, and really studied it.  This made it my most profitable game; how would you go about diversifying or changing games entirely?

Making the Decision

In my experience, a bad beat led me to change my game, and winning at 7 stud kept me coming back.  It just happened to be my perfect game.  I was able to set goals and combine those goals with solid strategies i either learned from books or witnessed from other players.  The thing that appealed to me about 7 stud was being able to view cards that other players were holding, and use those statistics to make a decision on my cards. This let me use skills that Holdem doesn’t really value. Other players may find the appeal of Omaha and 4 starting cards appealing.  The point is, making the decision to try out a different game may be as simple as a bad beat, but to stay with that game it comes to profit and opportunity as well as maximising your personal skills.

So, what is your most profitable game?

Common Mistakes Poker Players Make – Part 2

I am a multi-tasker at heart. I love to have Call of Duty on, with my laptop in front of me and MSN open, while listening to some music. And in that situation, there are no problems, COD is a game that requires a little concentration, but if i die, i will just respawn.

Poker is the exact opposeite of that situation. Online poker has given the ability to play anywhere, any time, and with that ability comes a lot of distractions. If you’re not focused entirely on your game, you will likely miss something, and that could lead to your entire stack being literally given away. Play in an environment that enables comfort and no interruption, and make sure people are aware of what you’re doing! (we’ve all seen those commercials where the guy misses dinner with his friends, and they’re all like “he’s the one missing out!” – Ridiculous!)

If you’re of the mind to play a big MTT, make sure that you have enought time to get through it. Nothing is more frustrating than putting your time in, grinding your way to the top of a field of thousands, and with MTT’s lately, it could be 4-6 hours! Just when you’re about to cash you find that you have to go pick your kids/wife/girlfriend up from somewhere. Don’t sell yourself short when signing up for these, and make sure you can complete the tourney on your terms, and not some other commitment.

I’m not saying don’t listen to music, or don’t have some background music on. But what i am saying is don’t cripple yourself before you’ve even sat at the table.

Common Mistakes Players Often Make – Part 1

It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of on-line poker, and even easier to develop bad habits because we see other players getting paid off by chasing a brutal 3 outer to the river and hitting it. In this series I’m going to look at common mistakes players make, how they fall into those traps, and how you can hopefully avoid them!

As I said, it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of online play. It’s fast, it’s reckless, and one of the major mistakes new players often fall into is not recognizing a “loose” (also termed Loose Aggressive) strategy as oppose to NO strategy. Often players will see a “loose” player and think that they are an easy target, but this is a mistaken thought. While a loose player may see a lot of flops, and bet at a lot of hands they aren’t foolish. You’d be hard pressed to see a loose player (seriously) called a river rat or a calling station, even though , to a novice it might seem so. Often they are taking calculated risks, playing hands that have high value if a specific flop hits (low suited connectors, 9/7 suited etc), and are often capitalizing on perceived weakness of their opponents and their position at the table.

The danger in not recognizing a “loose” player is that you will pay him off. Huge. You wont believe that he’s got anything, but the reality is you’ve only seen him showdown a few hands. Sometimes he’s miscalculated and he’s not raking in the chips, but most of his pots are won on the flop or the turn. But he’s paying attention to the calling stations, and the river rats, and hopes that youdon’t see his monster hand coming. He’s hoping that you’ll think he’s bluffing, and come over the top in an effort to make him fold..or even better, check call him all the way to the river.

Let me say this again, if you see a player who seems to be betting a lot, steals your blinds and is obviously baiting anyone to call them down..they may know exactly what they’re doing, and you may be playing right into it!


PokerStars.com