Poker Blog and Poker Gossip

I hate new years resolutions.  Far too much fluff for my liking…  But poker is a game that is easily measurable, and for players who want to make improvements, setting goals is one of the best and easiest ways to track how you’re doing.  With that in mind, think back to 2009, and to what your goals were at that point in time.  Were you thinking about how to improve your game?  Were you just hoping to play in your first “live” tourney, or make $100 dollars that would go to something other than poker, not back into your bankroll? 

How to set Your Goals
Goal setting is a very personal thing, and one person’s goal may be so far out of reach that it seems like you’ll never get to that level.  An example of this is Daniel Negreanu just outlined his eight goals for 2010.  I don’t want to get into them too much, but his first goal is to win $1,000,000 in tournament earnings.  Not exactly where I’m at in my goal setting, and if I set a goal like that i would be very likely to fail at my goal. 

Make sure It’s Attainable
As i said in my example up there, setting a goal that you’re likely to fail at is self defeating.  Make sure that you’re able to meet your goal, but don’t make it something that is fairly easy to accomplish (how will you improve otherwise?).  Something i like to do is study areas that i avoid looking at in my game (if you’re avoiding doing something, typically it’s in your weakness bank).  SomethingI’m not great at is playing under the gun.  I overvalue hands, or sometimes drop hands i should be playing.  Another area is either tightening up your game (a lot of players play way too loose!), or being able to “Switch up” (play different styles in the same situations) your game.  Now that we know what we’re going to work on..how do we create the goal?

Make Sure it’s Measurable
Simply saying “I’m going to switch my game up a bit this session” isn’t nearly good enough.  First, it’s human nature to default to an already comfortable behaviour.  Second you wont have any idea on how you’re doing on your goal or how it’s improving your game if youdon’t have concrete, measurable milestones.  So, if you’re goal is to improve your under the gun play (like mine is), i would put my goal like this:  “For 2 sessions this week, playing in tournament play, I will do the opposite of my natural reaction (hold or fold my hole cards) and see how it plays out.  I will do this early in the tournament (minimize loss) and do it a minimum of 4 hands through the game.”  After a few weeks evaluate how things are going and using your pokertracker software find out if it’s improving your play at all.  Ask yourself what the benefits and draw backs of what your doing are, and change it up as needed.

Make Sure it’s still Fun!
Sure, we all want to improve, but for a lot of people this is a recreational hobby, and not a way to make a living.  Make sure that you’re taking your game seriously, butdon’t take the fun out of it! 

Think about how 2009 started, and where you are today…and about where you want to be when 2011 starts.

When to move up?
I am a huge fan of going on a heater.  It’s a great feeling, and sometimes it feels like i can’t lose.  However, there have been times whenI’ve been riding the wave of an amazing session, and have literally doubled my bankroll.  And what did i do right away?  I moved up to the next level of stakes.  Was this incorrect?  Mathematically , absolutely not.  I went from $450 or so to around $1200 in a single session, easily giving me the 20-25 buy ins that i comfortably need to move up a level. But when i started playing on the higher stakes tables, i started losing.  Badly.  Missing big pots, chasing stupid hands, and letting the other players get under my skin enough so that i didn’t notice when i was making a bad call, or until well afterI’d priced myself into the pot.

Get Conservative!
What i forgot to do, in this example, was to make sure that my game was good enough for the higher levels.  I had the bankroll, that much i knew.  I also knew that if kept winning the way i was winning, i would win a lot more at the higher level.  But i didn’t think about the fact that players who play regularly at the higher levels either have more money to give away (the gamblers), or are much more experienced than the $25 no limit table players. After i lost all the moneyI’d won to get myself up to the higher level (it was not a great evening session that day…) i started doing research about how to gauge when to move up in levels, and how to measure yourgame play.

Poker Tracker and ptbb/100
Up until this point i wasn’t using a tracking software to compare what i was winning to what i was putting out.  I was a recreational player, and was quite content with reloading my bankroll every 6 months or so.  I set up pokertracker, and played at my old level for a few weeks to get a good handle on my game play.  The conservative approach is take a sampling of 100,000 hands before moving up, but this is akin to needing 60 buy in’s to play NLHE at any level (overkill.)  I went with 25,000 or so hands and  I realized that my winrate was 3 ptbb/100 (based on this at .50/1.00 nl i was making $6 / 100 hands..click here for a more in depth forum post on the topic..), and so that was good enough for me to move up.  4 ptbb/100 is better, but i felt confident.  My bankroll supported my move (again), and this time i knew where i had gone wrong in moving up in stakes the last time. I did much better and am now thinking about moving up again.

So, in short, ensure that you have the bankroll for a higher level and make sure that you’re game is up for the challenge of the new level.  If you feel like moving up, do it, but remember…keep a close watch on your win rate and adjust accordingly.

I know a lot of poker players who think I’m nuts.  Tossing an ace with a strong(ish) kicker like a jack seems crazy.  But, in a lot of situations, it’s the right move.  (Note: There are situations where it’s the wrong move…late in a tourney, heads up, short stacked etc…but these are all situations where you would be making a move and either pushing, putting a LOT of pressure, or there are so few cards out there that any ace is a strong ace!)

Ahem…let’s look at the reality of AJ in a regular 8-10 handed table.  You play your AJ in mid position and you flop an ace.  There is a huge chance that you could be dominated by AK or AQ.  In this situation you would just be throwing money into a pot that you are very unlikely to pull out a win.  Lets say you pair your jack.  You could also get demolished by AA or JJ, and you would essentially be drawing dead after the flop. 

My favourite reason for dismissing AJ out of hand is this:  I LOVE a good draw.  And drawing to the top straight is always fun, especially when it hits.  But, AJ is a hand that if you flop a draw it is almost certainly a gutshot. Chasing a turn and a river for one card (even if it’s a 4 outer) is not winning poker, and should really be avoided.

More often than not if you play AJ you are making decisions about what to do with top pair and an okay kicker, or weather or not the pot is giving you the odds to see one more card to hit yourmiracle straight.

Playing AJ is a classic formula for winning a small pot and losing a big one.  Be careful with it!

There is nothing I like more when playing poker than looking down and seeing pocket Aces.  But occasionally, I’ll make a mistake, and wont raise enough, or there will just be too many people in the hand to maximize the AA potential. Folding Aces is difficult, but going broke on a hand you’re clearly beat on is just plain silly. 

And that leads me to the point.  Sometimes players fall in love with their hand, completely ignoring all of the big flashing signs to FOLD IT.  Its easy to do with AA or KK, but sometimes players (especially new players) can’t see past their own cards and only see what they want to see.  They end up getting burned.   Paying attention to the board, all of it, not just what hit for you, isextremely important.  Equally important is the betting.  If you’re rocking top pair, but people are playing back at you have a look at the board.  Is there a flush out there?  A straight?  I’m not advocating playing scared, just smart.  Knowing what can beat you, and what you can beat is a great practice to get into.

All of the info you need is right there if you’re willing to listen to it. 

We’ve all been there.  You’re in mid position, later in a tourney, and you raise 3x the big blind.  Then someone in late position re-raises you all in.  But…you’re holding a high pocket pair.  Sure, it’s not KK or AA, but it’s STRONG.  And what are the chances that the guy in late position is holding one of the 2 hands that you’ll be only 20% to beat???

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying don’t play these hands.  What i AM saying, however, is slow down and really think about what your opponent is holding.  If the guy has been playing position all night, and you feel you have a good read on him, for sure gamble a bit.  If it’s out of character for your opponent to re-raise or push, be very careful.

Its worth it to note that even a newer player is unlikely to re-raise (even in late position) with 99 or 1010, so any re-raise (or push) needs to be seriously considered, and balanced with what you know of the player (tells, history, aggressivness).  If you know very little about the player, it’s good to give them the benefit of the doubt and wait for a better shot to take them out later in the tourney.

Last week i talked about the difference between trips and a set, and this week i’ll continue that train of thought with going over how powerful a mid (or low) pocket pair can be.

Let’s look at it this way.  If you’re holding pocket 66’s in early position, and the flop comes 9, J, K It’s a very easy flop to fold.  You’re able to lead out, (or check, but it’s not recommended) and get a lot of information from your opponents.  It’s the type of hand that if your opponent calls your hand, you can be sure they have you beat and fold the hand after the turn. 

If you hit however, you have a very disguised hand that can do a lot of damage.  The risk-reward ratio is huge with this type of hand. 

Compare pocket 66’s with pocket QQ’s and the same flop.  You would be much less inclined to fold even with the king out on the flop, and would likely commit much more money to the pot, both preflop and postflop (because the pot is bigger). 

The difference is largely this.  With pocket 66’s, you know you have to hit, and know that if you don’t improve it’s a throwaway hand.  There is little danger of you “marrying” the hand, and it is much more likely that if you hit, you hit big.  With QQ’s, (or JJ or 1010), you immediately love the hand.  Feel that it’s a made hand, and that no one out there can beat you.  You play more recklessly, and often miss big clues that you’re behind.  Even if you are right and the person didn’t hit the king, the king is out there making them afraid you’ve hit it, and your pay off is minimized. 

With low to mid pocket pairs your postflop decisions can be simplified and your odds of getting much bigger pay-offs are improved greatly (if you hit!!)